Polymarket vs Kalshi: Complete Comparison
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction market platforms. Polymarket is crypto-native (USDC on Polygon), has higher liquidity, and supports copy trading via Merlin. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and available to US residents. Both let you trade on real-world event outcomes.
Quick Comparison
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2020 | 2021 |
| Settlement | USDC on Polygon | USD (bank/card) |
| Regulation | Unregulated (non-US) | CFTC-regulated (US) |
| US access | Read-only | Full trading |
| Trading fees | No fees (spread only) | Exchange fee per contract |
| Daily volume | $50M–$200M+ | $5M–$20M |
| Market types | Politics, crypto, sports, culture, economics, tech, finance | Politics, economics, weather, sports |
| Order book | CLOB (on-chain) | CLOB (centralized) |
| Copy trading | Yes (via Merlin) | No |
| Analytics tools | Merlin leaderboard, scores, insider detection | Basic portfolio view |
| API | Public (free) | Public (free) |
Liquidity and Volume
Polymarket dominates in trading volume. During major events (US elections, crypto milestones), Polymarket daily volume can exceed $200M. Higher liquidity means tighter spreads and less slippage — important for larger positions.
Kalshi has grown steadily since winning CFTC approval for event contracts in 2023, but its volume is roughly 5-10x smaller than Polymarket for comparable markets.
Fees
Polymarket charges no trading fees. The only cost is the bid-ask spread in the order book and Polygon gas fees (typically under $0.01 per transaction).
Kalshi charges an exchange fee on each contract. Fee structure varies by contract type, but typically ranges from $0.01-$0.07 per contract.
Regulation and Access
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. This provides legal clarity and consumer protections for American traders. Funds are held in segregated accounts.
Polymarket operates outside US jurisdiction following a 2022 CFTC settlement. It is accessible globally (except US for real-money trading) and settles on-chain, meaning you custody your own funds.
Market Selection
Polymarket covers 8 categories with 200+ active markets at any given time: politics, crypto, sports, culture, economics, tech, finance, and more. Markets are community-proposed and can be created quickly for trending events.
Kalshi focuses on regulated event contracts: elections, economics (Fed decisions, inflation), weather, and selected sports markets. Market creation is slower due to CFTC approval requirements.
Copy Trading and Analytics
A key advantage of Polymarket is the availability of third-party analytics tools. Merlin provides a real-time leaderboard of top 50 traders across 8 categories, proprietary metrics (Trader Score, Insider Score, Whale Tiers), and free automated copy trading via Telegram.
Kalshi does not expose individual trader data or support copy trading. Analytics are limited to basic portfolio tracking.
Which Should You Choose?
Choose Polymarket if:
- You are outside the US
- You want deeper liquidity and more markets
- You want free copy trading via Merlin
- You prefer self-custody (on-chain)
- You want advanced trader analytics