Silent Weather Bot — $200K Cleared
Автоматическая торговля на погодных рынках с ансамблевыми прогнозными моделями.
Автоматическая стратегия на погодных рынках Polymarket — прогнозы максимальных температур для городов по всему миру. Бот получает данные в реальном времени из Open-Meteo и сверяет их с 51 ансамблевой прогнозной моделью для поиска мисприсингов. Когда фаворит рынка расходится с консенсусом прогнозов — бот фиксирует разницу и торгует на этом расхождении. 66,000+ исполненных сделок, работает в тихом режиме с минимальным следом.
Описание стратегии
Strategy Overview
A fully automated weather trading strategy that exploits mispricings in Polymarket’s “highest temperature in X city” markets. The bot compares market odds against real meteorological data and trades when the two diverge — turning weather forecasting into a systematic edge.
How It Works
- Data source: Open-Meteo real-time forecasts + 51 ensemble models for confidence scoring
- Market selection: Ranks cities by 24h volume, focuses on liquid markets
- Edge detection: Compares market favorite vs. forecast consensus
- 0°C difference = no edge, skip
- 1°C difference = small edge
- 2°C+ difference = likely mispricing, trade
- Execution: Automated, high-frequency — 66,000+ predictions to date
- Stealth mode: Cleans up positions after settlement, minimal on-chain footprint
Sample Positions
- Weather: Highest temperature in Hong Kong — $2,300+ position
- Weather: Multiple city temperature markets — rotating daily
- Occasional diversification into sports and event markets
Risk Profile
Medium risk — the strategy relies on meteorological data consensus, which is inherently more predictable than political or sports markets. Individual position sizes are small, but high frequency means capital is constantly deployed. Risk comes from sudden weather anomalies that deviate from all 51 models.
Who Is This For
- Those interested in data-driven, automated trading strategies
- Traders looking for non-correlated market exposure (weather vs. politics/sports)
- Anyone curious about systematic edge detection on Polymarket