Silent Weather Bot — $200K Cleared
Automated weather market trading using ensemble forecast models.
An automated strategy targeting Polymarket weather markets — highest temperature forecasts for cities worldwide. The bot pulls real-time data from Open-Meteo and cross-references 51 ensemble forecast models to identify mispricings. When the market favorite diverges from the forecast consensus, it flags the disagreement and trades the edge. 66,000+ predictions executed, running in silent mode with minimal footprint.
Strategy breakdown
Strategy Overview
A fully automated weather trading strategy that exploits mispricings in Polymarket’s “highest temperature in X city” markets. The bot compares market odds against real meteorological data and trades when the two diverge — turning weather forecasting into a systematic edge.
How It Works
- Data source: Open-Meteo real-time forecasts + 51 ensemble models for confidence scoring
- Market selection: Ranks cities by 24h volume, focuses on liquid markets
- Edge detection: Compares market favorite vs. forecast consensus
- 0°C difference = no edge, skip
- 1°C difference = small edge
- 2°C+ difference = likely mispricing, trade
- Execution: Automated, high-frequency — 66,000+ predictions to date
- Stealth mode: Cleans up positions after settlement, minimal on-chain footprint
Sample Positions
- Weather: Highest temperature in Hong Kong — $2,300+ position
- Weather: Multiple city temperature markets — rotating daily
- Occasional diversification into sports and event markets
Risk Profile
Medium risk — the strategy relies on meteorological data consensus, which is inherently more predictable than political or sports markets. Individual position sizes are small, but high frequency means capital is constantly deployed. Risk comes from sudden weather anomalies that deviate from all 51 models.
Who Is This For
- Those interested in data-driven, automated trading strategies
- Traders looking for non-correlated market exposure (weather vs. politics/sports)
- Anyone curious about systematic edge detection on Polymarket