Tankers Hit Off Basrah as Houthis Threaten Bab al-Mandab
Two tankers targeted in Iraqi waters as Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandab strait. Hormuz already resolved at 100%, ceasefire odds near zero.
two tankers targeted off basrah — iraqi waters, not iranian. houthis threatening to close bab al-mandab strait. hormuz already at 100%, $49M traded. ceasefire by march 15: 0.1%.
What happened
Two tankers were targeted off Basrah in Iraqi waters — notably not Iranian territory — marking an expansion of maritime hostilities beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Houthi forces have threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab strait, which would effectively shut down the second critical chokepoint for global oil shipping.
The Hormuz closure market on Polymarket already resolved at 100% with $49M in total volume. Now traders are watching whether the conflict expands to Bab al-Mandab, which handles roughly 10% of global seaborne oil trade.
Market data
- US x Iran ceasefire (March 15): 0.1%
- Hormuz closure: resolved at 100%, $49M traded
- Conflict expanding: Iraqi waters, Houthi involvement
Merlin’s take
The conflict is widening geographically. Targeting tankers in Iraqi waters — not Iranian — signals that maritime disruption is no longer limited to the Hormuz chokepoint. With ceasefire odds at effectively zero for March and Houthis entering the equation, the risk profile has shifted from “will Hormuz close” to “how many chokepoints get disrupted.”
Oil traders should watch the Bab al-Mandab threat closely. If Houthis follow through, we’re looking at dual-strait disruption for the first time — a scenario that isn’t priced into most energy markets yet.
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