What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are exchanges where participants trade contracts that pay out based on real-world event outcomes. Prices between $0.01 and $0.99 represent the market's consensus probability. Polymarket is the largest crypto-native prediction market, settling all trades in USDC on the Polygon blockchain.
How do Polymarket market prices work?
Each Polymarket market has outcomes with share prices between $0.01 and $0.99. The price reflects the market's estimated probability — a share at $0.65 means a 65% chance. If correct, shares pay $1.00; if wrong, $0.00. You profit by buying underpriced outcomes.
How to find the best prediction markets to trade?
Look for markets with high trading volume (indicating active interest and liquidity), tight bid-ask spreads, and clear resolution criteria. Merlin's trending markets page ranks markets by volume to help you find the most liquid and actively traded markets.
Can I see which top traders are active in a market?
Yes. Click any market on Merlin to see which top leaderboard traders hold positions. You can then copy-trade the best performers directly via the Merlin Telegram bot.