How to Find Profitable Traders on Polymarket

Finding genuinely profitable traders on Polymarket is harder than it looks. Raw P&L numbers don’t tell the full story — a trader with +$200K might have risked $2M to get there, while a trader with +$50K from $60K volume is far more capital-efficient. Here’s how to use Merlin’s analytics to separate signal from noise.

Step 1: Start with the Leaderboard

The Merlin leaderboard ranks the top 50 traders across four time periods (Day, Week, Month, All-Time) and eight categories (Overall, Crypto, Politics, Sports, and more). This is your starting point.

Pro tip: Don’t just look at All-Time. A trader who made $500K in 2024 but has been flat or losing in 2026 isn’t a great follow target. Filter by 30-day or weekly performance to find traders with current edge.

Step 2: Check the Merlin Trader Score

The Merlin Trader Score (0-100) is a composite metric that weighs four factors:

All-Time P&L (35%) — total profitability on a log scale
30-Day P&L (25%) — recent performance matters
Consistency (20%) — active across multiple time periods
ROI Quality (20%) — average ROI across active periods

What to look for: Scores above 70 indicate strong, consistent traders. Scores above 85 are exceptional. The score uses logarithmic P&L normalization (log10(|PnL| + 1) / 6) to prevent extreme outliers from dominating, and ROI is capped at 100%.

The leaderboard shows each trader’s score inline. You can click any row to expand a quick preview with detailed stats.

Step 3: Evaluate ROI Rating

ROI Rating (S/A/B/C/D) tells you how efficiently a trader uses capital:

S — ROI >= 50% (exceptional)
A — ROI 20-50% (strong)
B — ROI 5-20% (solid)
C — ROI 0-5% (marginal)
D — ROI < 0% (losing money)

ROI is calculated as (P&L / Volume) x 100. A trader with an S or A rating is generating high returns relative to capital deployed. D-rated traders are net losers regardless of their volume.

Warning: Very high ROI with very low volume can be misleading. A trader who placed one $100 bet and won $200 has 100% ROI but no proven track record. Always cross-reference ROI with volume and trade count.

Step 4: Analyze Win Rate

Win Rate is the percentage of closed positions that were profitable. Merlin calculates this by comparing total buy cost versus total exit value (sells + redeems) for each unique market.

Benchmarks:

55-60% — above average
60-70% — strong
70%+ — exceptional (very rare at scale)

Win rate alone doesn’t tell you profitability. A 90% win rate with small wins and occasional catastrophic losses (a common pattern) can still be net negative. Combine win rate with P&L and ROI for the full picture.

Step 5: Check Risk Score

The Risk Score (1-10) measures how risky a trader’s approach is:

Low (1-3) — diversified, controlled drawdowns, reasonable position sizes
Medium (4-6) — some concentration, moderate drawdowns
High (7-10) — concentrated positions, severe drawdowns, aggressive sizing

The score combines three factors: portfolio concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), max drawdown severity, and position sizing relative to total volume.

For copy trading: Target traders with Risk Scores of 3-5. Too low (1-2) might mean overly cautious, too high (7+) means you could face large drawdowns.

Step 6: Look at Whale Tier

Whale Tiers classify traders by total volume:

Whale — $500K+ volume
Shark — $100K-$500K
Dolphin — $10K-$100K
Fish — < $10K

Sharks and Dolphins with high Trader Scores are often the best finds. They have enough volume to prove their edge but aren’t so large that their trades move markets. Browse whale tier pages: Whales, Sharks, Dolphins.

Step 7: Scan for Insider Edge

The Merlin Insider Score (0-100) identifies traders who consistently profit on low-probability outcomes (entry price < 35 cents). A score above 70 suggests potential informational edge.

The score weighs:

Longshot win rate (35%)
Profit magnitude (30%)
Betting frequency (20%)
Consistency across periods (10%)
Extreme entry bonus < 10 cents (5%)

Check the Insiders leaderboard for the highest-scoring insider traders.

Step 8: Review Trader Tags

Trader Tags are behavioral labels Merlin assigns automatically:

Sniper — ROI > 30%, volume > $10K. Surgical precision
Degen — Volume > $100K, ROI < 5%. High activity, low efficiency
Contrarian — Average entry below 30 cents. Bets against the crowd
Scalper — 50+ trades, average size < $100. High-frequency small bets
Conviction — 5 or fewer positions, total > $5K. Concentrated bets
Diversified — Active in 10+ markets. Spreads capital widely

For copy trading: Snipers and Diversified traders tend to be the safest follows. Degens and Conviction traders are higher risk.

Putting It All Together

Here’s a practical checklist for evaluating a trader:

Trader Score 70+ — proven composite quality
ROI Rating A or S — capital efficient
Win Rate 60%+ — consistently correct
Risk Score 3-5 — balanced risk approach
Shark or Whale tier — enough volume to be meaningful
Active in last 30 days — current edge, not historical
Category specialist — strong in their niche

When a trader checks most of these boxes, they’re a strong candidate for copy trading via the Merlin Telegram bot.

Quick Evaluation on the Leaderboard

Merlin now shows whale tier emoji and ROI Rating badge directly on each leaderboard row. Click any row to expand an inline preview with Merlin Score, Win Rate, Risk Score, and top positions — no need to navigate to the full profile.

For copy trading mode, visit the leaderboard with ?mode=copy for a streamlined interface focused on trader selection.

Conclusion

Finding profitable traders is a data problem, and Merlin gives you the data. Start with the leaderboard, filter by your preferred category and time period, and use the metrics in this guide to narrow your shortlist. Then follow the best with one click.

Explore the full Merlin methodology to understand exactly how every metric is calculated.