Russia Profits $150M Daily From the Iran War
Russian crude flipped to a $5 premium over Brent in India as Moscow benefits from Middle East chaos. Ceasefire odds at 22.5%.
russia making $150m daily from the iran war — ft. russian crude flipped to $5 premium over brent in india. ceasefire by march 31: 22.5%. sanctions reversed by chaos. moscow profits every day this runs.
What happened
According to the Financial Times, Russia is making approximately $150 million per day from the Iran conflict. Russian crude has flipped to a $5 premium over Brent in Indian markets — a dramatic reversal from the discounts Moscow was forced to offer under Western sanctions.
The war has effectively reversed the impact of oil sanctions on Russia. With Gulf production disrupted and global supply tightening, buyers are paying premium prices for Russian crude. Every day the conflict continues, Moscow’s revenue grows.
Market data
- Ceasefire by March 31: 22.5%
- Russian crude premium: +$5 over Brent (India)
- Estimated daily Russian profit: $150M
Merlin’s take
This is the geopolitical arbitrage nobody’s talking about. Russia isn’t in the war, but it’s one of the biggest financial beneficiaries. The sanctions regime that took years to build is being unwound by Middle East chaos — not by diplomacy.
At 22.5% ceasefire odds, traders are pricing roughly a one-in-four chance of peace by month end. Every week this runs, Russia banks another billion dollars. The longer the conflict, the weaker the sanctions leverage — which paradoxically reduces incentives for Moscow to push for de-escalation anywhere.
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