Blog
Prediction market strategies, Polymarket trader analysis, and data-driven insights.
Merlin Blog covers prediction market strategies, Polymarket trader analysis, and data-driven insights. Learn how top traders profit from prediction markets and discover actionable trading strategies backed by real leaderboard data.
Us mq-4c drone squawked 7700 over persian gulf. dropped 12,000 meters in 10 minutes.
us mq-4c drone squawked 7700 over persian gulf. dropped 12,000 meters in 10 minutes. ceasefire: 99.8%. invasion by 2027: 31.5%. $6.8M wagered on whether the truce becomes permanent. drone possibly down. deal still up.
Core pce prints in 80 minutes, forecast at 0.4% — same as last month
core pce prints in 80 minutes, forecast at 0.4% — same as last month bitcoin above $76k by april 9 sitting at 0.1% on polymarket $495k traded on that contract hot inflation print keeps fed on hold, which historically drags crypto — but at 0.1%, the downside is already fully priced
Iran caps hormuz at 15 ships per day during ceasefire.
iran caps hormuz at 15 ships per day during ceasefire. down from 50+ daily under normal operations. hormuz normal by april 30: 22.5%. $5.3M wagered. strait reopened. capacity cut 70%.
Wti $120 in april dropped from 37.5% to 25.5%
wti $120 in april dropped from 37.5% to 25.5% israel struck lebanon, killing 200+, wounding 1,200+ — but spain's response signals diplomatic pressure, not escalation toward a supply shock 12pt move on $548k volume, market repricing away from the extreme upside scenario 25.5% still leaves room, but t
Scheffler masters: 13.5% polymarket, 50% kalshi.
scheffler masters: 13.5% polymarket, 50% kalshi. 36.5 point gap on the same outcome. $2.1M wagered. world no. 1 priced as a longshot on one platform, coin flip on the other.